{"id":577,"date":"2012-11-07T15:18:53","date_gmt":"2012-11-07T15:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rulesofreason.wordpress.com\/?p=577"},"modified":"2012-11-07T15:18:53","modified_gmt":"2012-11-07T15:18:53","slug":"hedging-the-bets-the-us-election-outcome-in-the-dutch-press","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=577","title":{"rendered":"Hedging the bets: The US election outcome in the Dutch press"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is a guest post by Markus Haverland<\/a>,\u00a0Professor\u00a0at\u00a0Erasmus University Rotterdam and author of a recent book<\/a> on research methods.<\/em>
\n***<\/p>\n

Causal knowledge about the world proceeds by testing hypotheses. The context of discovery precedes the context of justification. We all know that journalists and pundits often do it the other way around: providing for an explanation after the fact.<\/p>\n

A particularly hilarious example can be found in today\u2019s issue of \u201cSpits\u201d, a Dutch daily newspaper. Anticipating that the result of the elections for the president of the US would arrive after the newspapers went to press, the newspaper prepared for both situations. It has turned the backpage into a second frontpage. Depending on the results the reader is advised to either read the frontpage or the backpage. On both pages the well-known \u00a0Dutch journalists, a former correspondent in Washington, Charles Groenhuijsen analyses the results. On the \u201cObama wins\u201d page he explains that it was evident that Obama would win, because he is a better campaigner and Romney\u2019s economic program is inconsistent. On the \u201cRomney\u00a0 wins\u201d\u00a0 page he explains this outcome, by stating that, ultimately, the US is a conservative country, that voters were afraid of a turn to the left, laws against gun possession, and tolerance towards gay marriage, and that voters thought he was not effectively dealing with the economic crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This is a guest post by Markus Haverland,\u00a0Professor\u00a0at\u00a0Erasmus University Rotterdam and author of a recent book on research methods. *** Causal knowledge about the world proceeds by testing hypotheses. The context of discovery precedes the context of justification. We all know that journalists and pundits often do it the other way around: providing for an explanation after the fact. A particularly hilarious example can be found in today\u2019s issue of \u201cSpits\u201d, a Dutch daily newspaper. Anticipating that the result of the elections for the president of the US would arrive after the newspapers went to press, the newspaper prepared for both situations. It has turned the backpage into a second frontpage. Depending on the results the reader is advised to either read the frontpage or the backpage. On both pages the well-known \u00a0Dutch journalists, a former correspondent in Washington, Charles Groenhuijsen analyses the results. On the \u201cObama wins\u201d page he explains that it was evident that Obama would win, because he is a better campaigner and Romney\u2019s economic program is inconsistent. On the \u201cRomney\u00a0 wins\u201d\u00a0 page he explains this outcome, by stating that, ultimately, the US is a conservative country, that voters were afraid of a turn to the left, laws against gun possession, and tolerance towards gay marriage, and that voters thought he was not effectively dealing with the economic crisis.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[20,46],"tags":[70,194,257,403,618,673],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7g3hj-9j","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":839,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=839","url_meta":{"origin":577,"position":0},"title":"Why political scientists should continue to (fail to) predict elections?","date":"May 11, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"The results from the British elections last week already claimed the heads of three party leaders. 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