{"id":227,"date":"2011-12-20T17:07:13","date_gmt":"2011-12-20T17:07:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/rulesofreason.wordpress.com\/?p=227"},"modified":"2011-12-20T17:07:13","modified_gmt":"2011-12-20T17:07:13","slug":"is-this-a-common-ecological-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=227","title":{"rendered":"Is this a common (ecological) fallacy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>You have data on two levels\u00a0(individuals and countries) for\u00a0an outcome variable (e.g. &#8216;trust&#8217;) and a predictor (e.g. &#8216;wealth&#8217;). Supppose that the\u00a0pooled and within-country individual-level correlations between the two variables\u00a0are strongly positive\u00a0but the between-country (country-level) correlation is zero. You build a regression with individual-level &#8216;trust&#8217; as the dependent variable and individual-level wealth AND the country-level average of individual welath as predictors. Is there a well-known mechanism that induces a significantly negative\u00a0coefficient\u00a0for the country averages?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You have data on two levels\u00a0(individuals and countries) for\u00a0an outcome variable (e.g. &#8216;trust&#8217;) and a predictor (e.g. &#8216;wealth&#8217;). Supppose that the\u00a0pooled and within-country individual-level correlations between the two variables\u00a0are strongly positive\u00a0but the between-country (country-level) correlation is zero. You build a regression with individual-level &#8216;trust&#8217; as the dependent variable and individual-level wealth AND the country-level average of individual welath as predictors. Is there a well-known mechanism that induces a significantly negative\u00a0coefficient\u00a0for the country averages?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[28],"tags":[201,202,315,422],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7g3hj-3F","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":526,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=526","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":0},"title":"Correlation does not imply causation. Then what does it imply?","date":"October 9, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"'Correlation does not imply causation' is an adage students\u00a0from all social sciences are made to recite from a very\u00a0early age. What is less often systematically discussed is what\u00a0could be actually going on so that two\u00a0phenomena are correlated but not\u00a0causally related. Let's try to make a list: 1) The correlation might\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Causality&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":868,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=868","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":1},"title":"Olympic medals, economic power and population size","date":"August 24, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"The 2016 Rio Olympic games being officially over, we can obsess as much as we like with the final medal table, without the distraction of having to actually watch any sports. One of the basic questions to ponder about the medal table is to what extent Olympic glory is determined\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Data visualization&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"olymp1","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/08\/olymp1-1-1024x630.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":336,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=336","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":2},"title":"Explanation and the quest for 'significant' relationships. Part II","date":"February 22, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"In Part I I argue that the search and discovery of statistically significant relationships does not amount to explanation and is often misplaced in the social sciences because the variables which are purported to have\u00a0effects\u00a0on the outcome cannot be manipulated. Just to make sure that my message is not misinterpreted\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Causality&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1046,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=1046","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":3},"title":"What are the effects of COVID-19 on mortality? Individual-level causes of death and population-level estimates of casual impact","date":"April 27, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Introduction How many people have died from COVID-19? What is the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in a population? Can we use excess mortality to estimate the effects of COVID-19? In this text I will explain why the answer to the first two questions need not be the same. That\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Causality&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":767,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=767","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":4},"title":"Predicting movie ratings with IMDb data and R","date":"March 2, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"It's Oscars season again so why not explore how predictable (my) movie tastes are. This has literally been a million dollar problem\u00a0and obviously I am not gonna solve it here, but it's fun and slightly educational to do some number crunching, so why not. Below, I will proceed from a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Data visualization&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/figure9.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":837,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=837","url_meta":{"origin":227,"position":5},"title":"Immigration from Central and Eastern Europe fuels support for Eurosceptic parties in the UK","date":"May 4, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Combining political, demographic and economic data for the local level in the UK, we find that the presence of immigrants from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) is related to higher voting shares cast for parties with Eurosceptic positions at the 2014 elections for the European Parliament. Evidence across Europe supports\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;EU governance&quot;","img":{"alt_text":"Data source: Standard Eurobarometer (59 to 82).","src":"http:\/\/eurosearch.files.wordpress.com\/2015\/05\/figure-1-importance-of-immigration.png?w=350&h=200&crop=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=227"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/227\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=227"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=227"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=227"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}