http:\/\/dimiter.eu\/Visualizations_files\/nlmortality\/Modeling-Mortality.html<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\nI hope this guide will provide some transparency about how expected mortality is and can be estimated from data and how it can be used to identify the effect of the pandemic. Feel free to try different estimation strategies, adapt the code to data from different countries, or use different measures to compare the performance of the models.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
To grasp the true impact of COVID-19 on our societies, we need to know the effect of the pandemic on mortality. In other words, we need to know how many deaths can be attributed to the virus, directly and indirectly. It is already popular to visualize mortality in order to gauge the impact of the pandemic in different countries. You might have seen at least some of these graphs and websites:\u00a0FT,\u00a0Economist,\u00a0Our World in Data,\u00a0CBS,\u00a0EFTA,\u00a0CDC,\u00a0EUROSTAT, and\u00a0EUROMOMO. But estimating the impact of COVID-19 on mortality is also controversial, with people either misunderstanding or distrusting the way in which the impact is measured and assessed. That’s why, I put together a step-by-step guide about how we can go about estimating the impact of COVID-19 on mortality. In the guide, I build a large number of statistical models that we can use to predict expected mortality in 2020. The complexity of the models ranges from the simplest, based only on weekly averages from past years, to what is currently the state of the art. But this is not all. What I also do is review the predictive performance of all of these models, so that we know which ones work best. I run the models on publicly available data from the Netherlands, I use only the open software\u00a0R, and I\u00a0share the code, so anyone can check, replicate and extend the exercise. The guide is available here: http:\/\/dimiter.eu\/Visualizations_files\/nlmortality\/Modeling-Mortality.html I hope this guide will provide some transparency about how expected mortality is and can be estimated…<\/p>\n
Continue readingModeling mortality<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[11,33,39],"tags":[759,762,763,515,764,539,765],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7g3hj-gZ","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1058,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=1058","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":0},"title":"Excess mortality in the Netherlands in 2020","date":"January 25, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"What has been the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in the Netherlands? Using the methods described here, I estimated excess mortality in the country during 2020. The results are not pretty: around 15,000 additional deaths, 10% increase over the expected mortality for the year, 25% of the excess not captured\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Data visualization"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1046,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=1046","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":1},"title":"What are the effects of COVID-19 on mortality? Individual-level causes of death and population-level estimates of casual impact","date":"April 27, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"Introduction How many people have died from COVID-19? What is the impact of COVID-19 on mortality in a population? Can we use excess mortality to estimate the effects of COVID-19? In this text I will explain why the answer to the first two questions need not be the same. That\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Causality"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i1.wp.com\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1061,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=1061","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":2},"title":"COVID-19 and mobility around the world","date":"February 2, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"2020 has been a crazy year with unprecedented changes in what we do, where we go, and how much time we spend at home. The Google Community Mobility Reports data provides a great resource for tracking changes in mobility since the beginning of 2020 in various countries, provinces and cities\u2026","rel":"","context":"In \"covid-19\"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":662,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=662","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":3},"title":"Hyperlinks","date":"January 30, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"After a not-so-short hiatus during which I visited friends and family in Bulgaria, went through a couple of seasonal colds, and got a new workstation up and running (MacBook Pro with W7), I am finally back to the blog. As a warm-up, a bunch of interesting links you might have\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Hyperlinks"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/01\/coral-2.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":158,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=158","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":4},"title":"Foreign media exposure and democratization","date":"November 9, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"This paper [ungated; longer version] has it all: a \u00a0design based on a 'natural experiment', recently declassified East German public opinion surveys, and a counterintuitive result - exposure to West German TV\u00a0increased support for the the East German communist regime. Here is the abstract: In this case study of the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Natural experiments"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":93,"url":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/?p=93","url_meta":{"origin":1053,"position":5},"title":"More than you ever wanted to know about compliance with EU law in Europe","date":"October 27, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"I \u00a0spent the last week finalizing a \u00a0review of the literature \u00a0on compliance with EU \u00a0law at the national level. It was a rather masochistic experience which I had promised \u00a0myself never to repeat but alas... This time at least somebody will take note it since I am going to\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Policy implementation"","img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1053"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1053"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1053\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1054,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1053\/revisions\/1054"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1053"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1053"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/re-design.dimiter.eu\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1053"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} ![\"\"](\"https:\/\/i2.wp.com\/raw.githubusercontent.com\/demetriodor\/modeling-mortality\/main\/images\/modeling%20mortality%20F1.png?ssl=1\")
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